Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low baseline probability (3.9%) suggests minimal market interest or confidence
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:35:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Democratic Party winning the AZ-03 House seat is positively related to the Republican Party losing the NY-25 House seat
correlates · strength 60%
US Fed rate cut is often seen as a sign of economic uncertainty, which may influence voters' decisions in NY-25 and GA-12 House seats; WeWork's bankruptcy would likely have a negative impact on the economy, potentially affecting the outcome of these elections; The passage of an AI safety bill could indicate a focus on technological advancements, which might influence the outcome of elections; The exact score of a sports match, such as Norway 0 - 2 France, is unrelated to political elections; The Democratic Party's performance in GA-12 and the Republican Party's performance in NY-25 are separate events, but the performance of one party in one election may be influenced by the performance of the other party in another election.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 30.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
74d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
33 points
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Republican Party has a low but non-negligible chance (3.9%) of winning NY-25 in the 2026 midterms, reflecting historical Democratic dominance in the district and current polling trends favoring Democrats in New York's congressional races.
Republicans could win NY-25 if national trends shift toward the GOP due to economic dissatisfaction, Democratic unpopularity in swing districts, or a strong Republican candidate emerging in a traditionally competitive seat. A potential red wave in 2026 could also boost their chances.
Democrats are heavily favored due to NY-25's Democratic-leaning voter base, recent electoral performance in New York, and incumbency advantages. Structural factors like gerrymandering and local party strength further reduce Republican prospects.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
