Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Delayed or failed token launch
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
77%
ORYN Consensus
77%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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FDV above $300M one day after launch is related to competition in the market
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FDV above $300M one day after launch is related to a successful product launch
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FDV above $300M one day after launch is related to the company's reputation
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Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship?
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Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? and Will Antonee Robinson record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? are not related to Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch, as they are unrelated events
correlates · strength 60%
FDV above $300M one day after launch is related to market demand
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 74-80
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a high probability (76.50%) that Predict.fun's governance token FDV will exceed $300M within one day of launch. This reflects strong early demand expectations, but hinges on successful token launch and liquidity conditions.
Predict.fun's token launch could exceed $300M FDV if the platform demonstrates strong traction in prediction markets, particularly in cricket, and attracts significant speculative trading volume. High liquidity and community engagement post-launch would support this outcome.
The market may fail to reach $300M FDV if the token launch is delayed, lacks liquidity, or faces regulatory hurdles. Weak initial demand or competition from established prediction platforms could also cap valuation growth.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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