Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Trump's potential candidacy and base loyalty
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? is related to Will the Golden State Warriors win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?, as both are unrelated and have no clear market relationship, likely due to differences in market sectors and industries
correlates · strength 60%
Will the Democratic Party win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
correlates · strength 60%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the 2026 Turkish Presidential Election?
correlates · strength 60%
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 US Senate elections?
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
correlates · strength 60%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be a commercial success?
correlates · strength 60%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be a commercial success?
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Will the Golden State Warriors win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
809d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a very low probability (0.85%) to Nikki Haley winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, indicating strong market skepticism. This reflects her current political standing, party dynamics, and historical trends in GOP nominations.
Nikki Haley could win the nomination if she consolidates moderate and establishment Republican support, leverages her foreign policy experience, and capitalizes on intra-party divisions post-Trump. A strong debate performance, fundraising surge, or unexpected GOP shifts could boost her odds.
Haley faces steep odds due to Trump’s enduring influence over the base, her past criticisms of him, and the party’s trend toward populist-nationalist candidates. Her lack of a dominant faction within the GOP and potential primary fragmentation further weaken her position.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
