Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Bias in resolution criteria favoring other candidates
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Low Correlation: Unrelated Event Spaces
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Inverse Correlation: Global Politics and Sports
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
50d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is extremely low (0.75%), reflecting historical precedence and geopolitical context. The resolution criteria heavily favor other potential recipients, including prioritized individuals or organizations, making Erdoğan's likelihood negligible.
Erdoğan could win if the Norwegian Nobel Committee prioritizes his role in mediating regional conflicts (e.g., Syria, Israel-Palestine) or humanitarian efforts, despite his polarizing domestic and international reputation. A last-minute geopolitical breakthrough or symbolic gesture (e.g., ceasefire facilitation) could marginally improve his odds.
Erdoğan’s chances are effectively zero due to his contentious legacy, human rights controversies, and the structured resolution criteria favoring other candidates. The market’s design (prioritizing Trump, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Putin, or Musk) and fallback rules (alphabetical/other) further diminish his probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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