Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Electoral college winner-takes-all systems in key states
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
809d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Ro Khanna has a very low probability (1.05%) of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, reflecting his status as a non-major-party candidate with limited national recognition compared to established figures. His candidacy would require overcoming significant structural barriers, including party nomination processes and electoral college dynamics.
Khanna could gain traction through grassroots mobilization, progressive policy alignment with key voter blocs, and a potential brokered Democratic convention if no candidate secures the nomination outright. His Silicon Valley connections and policy expertise might appeal to a segment of the electorate disillusioned with traditional politics.
Khanna faces near-insurmountable odds due to his lack of a major-party affiliation (likely running as an independent or third-party candidate), limited fundraising capacity, and the two-party dominance of US elections. Structural factors like the electoral college and ballot access laws further reduce his viability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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