Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Franchise fatigue reducing audience turnout
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? and Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? are negatively correlated, as a successful movie debut might distract from the growth of Manifold.love. Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? and Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? are positively correlated, as an Iraqi win might boost the movie's box office, and Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) is negatively correlated with Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?, as a raised debt ceiling might lead to increased government spending, reducing the appeal of the movie. Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score and Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? are negatively correlated, as a soccer match might draw attention away from the movie. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? and Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? are positively correlated, as a return to normal traffic might boost global economic confidence, increasing the appeal of the movie.
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Unrelated to the 2024 US Presidential Election, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, as these are distinct events in different domains
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r5: Nikki Haley's Presidential Bid 2024
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The success of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping may be compared to other high-profile events, like NBA finals, in terms of viewership and revenue
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
55 points
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?' reflects extremely low confidence (0.45%) in the film's ability to lead 2026 box office receipts, given its franchise status and competition from major releases.
If 'Sunrise on the Reaping' outperforms expectations with strong marketing, franchise nostalgia, and minimal competition, it could capitalize on its built-in fanbase and secure the top spot despite low baseline probability.
The film faces high competition from blockbusters like Marvel, DC, or Disney releases, and franchise fatigue may limit its appeal, making it unlikely to surpass other major 2026 contenders for the top grossing position.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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