This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key risk: Franchise fatigue reducing box office draw
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:01:37 AM
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assessing whether *The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping* will be the top-grossing film of 2026 has a near-zero probability (0.45%) due to the film's uncertain release window, competition from high-budget tentpoles, and lack of box office track record.
If the film releases in early 2026 with strong marketing, favorable critical reception, and minimal competition, it could capitalize on the *Hunger Games* franchise's enduring popularity and surpass other 2026 releases in domestic gross.
Given the crowded 2026 release calendar (e.g., Marvel, DC, and high-profile sequels), *Sunrise on the Reaping* faces steep odds unless it is a cultural phenomenon. Franchise fatigue or a late-year release could further diminish its chances.
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Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.5% while ORYN AI estimates 0.5%.
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