Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: market manipulation or shutdown
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:47:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
related to US Presidential Election
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Correlated with 2028 US Presidential Election markets, as the outcome may influence future candidates' decisions and voter sentiment
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Inversely related to non-political markets, such as movie box office performance, as they are driven by distinct factors and trends
correlates · strength 60%
Dependent: Nikki Haley dropping out of the 2024 presidential race before the end of Feb 2024 directly impacts her chances of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market currently assigns a 0.00% probability to any candidate winning the 2024 US Presidential Election, indicating either a halted market, data error, or extreme uncertainty. This defies historical precedent and suggests non-market factors may be influencing the outcome.
A late surge in support for a dark horse candidate (e.g., RFK Jr., Cornel West) or a third-party candidate (e.g., Robert F. Kennedy Jr., No Labels) could disrupt the two-party dominance and shift probabilities rapidly. Alternatively, a major exogenous shock (e.g., health crisis, scandal) could upend the race in the final weeks.
The market may be frozen due to regulatory intervention, platform restrictions, or a lack of liquidity, rendering predictions unreliable. Alternatively, the race could be perceived as foregone (e.g., Biden-Trump rematch with insurmountable polling leads) leading to market abandonment.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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