Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low baseline polling support (~5-10%)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:33:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 30.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
23d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
66 points
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Green Party (MP) has a 0.70% probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical performance, polling trends, and electoral dynamics strongly favor larger parties like the Social Democrats or Moderates.
The Green Party could surge ahead if climate policy becomes the dominant issue in 2026, capitalizing on youth voter mobilization and coalition-building with left-leaning parties. A major environmental crisis or policy failure by mainstream parties could shift public sentiment toward the Greens.
The Green Party’s traditional voter base is small (~5-10% in recent polls), and coalition dynamics favor larger parties like the Social Democrats or Moderates. Structural disadvantages, such as limited appeal beyond urban areas and competition with the Left Party, further reduce their chances of winning the most seats.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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