Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low polling numbers in critical states
Calibrated 100% · raw 190% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:50:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.9
Opportunity
1.9
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
correlates · strength 60%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? is correlated with market sentiment for Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024, as both are influenced by general sentiment and market noise, Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? is related as both are long-term political market predictions, Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? is related as it is a closely related event, Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? is related as both are political market predictions, Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? is highly correlated with Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024, as they are closely related events in the same political context
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 190.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a negligible 0.10% probability to Nikki Haley dropping out of the 2024 U.S. presidential race before the end of February 2024. This reflects strong market confidence in her continued participation, despite her recent primary challenges.
Nikki Haley maintains campaign momentum by securing key endorsements, improving fundraising, and appealing to moderate Republican voters. Her strong debate performances and strategic state-level targeting could sustain her viability through February 2024.
Declining poll numbers, underwhelming primary results, or financial constraints may force Haley to reassess her campaign. Internal party pressure or strategic withdrawals by other candidates could accelerate her exit decision.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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