Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Political fragmentation or deadlock
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:18:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
75%
ORYN Consensus
75%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Speculation on future success and market performance
correlates · strength 60%
Focus on potential leaders and their rise to power
correlates · strength 60%
uncorrelated
correlates · strength 60%
Theme of prediction and forecasting
correlates · strength 60%
Interest in long-term outcomes
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Similarity in predicting future events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 72-78
—
Resolution
23d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
47 points
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors Magdalena Andersson (74.50%) as the next Swedish Prime Minister post-2026 elections, reflecting her current political standing and coalition potential. However, the 11-month resolution window and reliance on official appointments introduce uncertainty.
Magdalena Andersson benefits from her incumbency as former PM and leadership of the Social Democrats, a party with strong historical electoral performance. A fragmented opposition and potential center-left coalition could secure her return to office, aligning with recent polling trends favoring her bloc.
Andersson faces risks from shifting voter preferences, potential right-wing gains, or internal party dissent. The 2026 election could result in a hung parliament or a coalition excluding her bloc, delaying or preventing her appointment. External shocks (e.g., economic downturn) could also alter the political landscape.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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