Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Government censorship or suppression of evidence
Calibrated 100% · raw 1089% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
+10.9
Opportunity
9.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? will be influenced by Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?, Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? will be influenced by Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?, Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) will be negatively correlated with Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?, Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024? will be influenced by Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?, Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? will be influenced by Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April? is related to LLMs for generating propaganda messages as Trump's potential arrest could lead to propaganda efforts to sway public opinion
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1089.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests an extremely low probability (0.11%) that a nation state's use of LLMs for propaganda will be publicly disclosed in 2023, indicating high uncertainty or skepticism about such an event occurring within the year.
A whistleblower, investigative report, or cybersecurity breach could expose state-sponsored LLM-driven propaganda campaigns, revealing sophisticated manipulation tactics and raising global concerns about AI's role in geopolitical influence operations.
Nation states may successfully conceal their use of LLMs for propaganda due to covert operations, lack of detectable fingerprints, or delayed public disclosure, making it unlikely to confirm such activities in 2023.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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