Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: regime_stability_mechanisms
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:08 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
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Putin's presidency may have a direct impact on global politics, potentially affecting the likelihood of a peaceful resolution in the Strait of Hormuz region, thus influencing the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin's presidency may negatively impact global crude oil prices, potentially affecting Strait of Hormuz traffic and oil prices, thus influencing Crude Oil (CL) and Strait of Hormuz traffic markets.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin's presidency may be seen as a stabilizing factor in international relations, potentially leading to a decrease in global tensions, which could negatively impact Manifold.love's growth and Panama's chances in the 2026-06-27 match.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 12.5% probability to Vladimir Putin ceasing to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026, indicating low market confidence in such an outcome. The resolution criteria are broad, including resignation, removal, detention, or permanent prevention from duties, but rely on official or credible reporting.
A combination of internal elite fractures, sustained public discontent, economic stagnation, or health concerns could force Putin to step down or be removed. Geopolitical pressures, such as prolonged war fatigue or sanctions, may also erode his domestic support base, creating conditions for a transition of power.
Putin's entrenched control over Russia's political and security apparatus, lack of viable succession plans, and suppression of dissent make a forced exit unlikely. The absence of a clear alternative leader and the regime's demonstrated resilience to crises further reduce the probability of a transition.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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