This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Key risk: Unexpected OPEC+ supply surge due to quota violations
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:21:42 AM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assessing whether Crude Oil (CL) will hit $60 by end of June 2026 shows an extremely low probability (0.55%) of resolution to 'Yes', indicating near-certainty that the price will remain above $60. The market's design relies exclusively on CME's official settlement prices for the active month, excluding intraday data or corrections.
A bullish scenario could materialize if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate sharply, disrupting supply chains and causing a sudden price drop. Alternatively, a severe global economic downturn could reduce demand enough to push prices below $60. OPEC+ overproduction or a surprise increase in non-OPEC supply (e.g., U.S. shale rebound) could also trigger this outcome.
The bearish case is overwhelmingly dominant given current fundamentals. Strong OPEC+ production cuts, robust global demand (especially from Asia), and limited spare capacity make a sub-$60 price highly unlikely. Geopolitical stability and no major supply disruptions further reduce the probability. The market's 0.55% price reflects this consensus.
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 0.6%.
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