Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected OPEC+ supply surge due to quota violations
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Manifold.love DAU
correlates · strength 60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
correlates · strength 60%
Putin out as President of Russia
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assessing whether Crude Oil (CL) will hit $60 by end of June 2026 shows an extremely low probability (0.55%) of resolution to 'Yes', indicating near-certainty that the price will remain above $60. The market's design relies exclusively on CME's official settlement prices for the active month, excluding intraday data or corrections.
A bullish scenario could materialize if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate sharply, disrupting supply chains and causing a sudden price drop. Alternatively, a severe global economic downturn could reduce demand enough to push prices below $60. OPEC+ overproduction or a surprise increase in non-OPEC supply (e.g., U.S. shale rebound) could also trigger this outcome.
The bearish case is overwhelmingly dominant given current fundamentals. Strong OPEC+ production cuts, robust global demand (especially from Asia), and limited spare capacity make a sub-$60 price highly unlikely. Geopolitical stability and no major supply disruptions further reduce the probability. The market's 0.55% price reflects this consensus.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.