Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Leadership's commitment to closed-source models despite external pressures
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:50 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.9
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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OpenAI leadership transition -> Iraq's 2026 World Cup outcome
correlates · strength 60%
Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April? is negatively correlated with Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition, as a significant event in the US politics may divert attention away from OpenAI's leadership transition
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 99.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a very low probability (0.01%) to OpenAI becoming significantly less closed source due to the leadership transition. Current signals suggest minimal immediate impact on OpenAI's open-source stance following leadership changes.
A leadership transition could prioritize transparency or pressure from regulators and stakeholders may force OpenAI to open-source more models or components, aligning with broader industry trends toward openness.
OpenAI's leadership may double down on closed-source models to maintain competitive advantage, protect proprietary technology, or address security concerns, especially given recent controversies and competitive pressures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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