Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden legal developments (e.g., new indictments or evidence)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:50:43 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Trump jail time -> Trump presidency
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns an extremely low probability (0.08%) to Donald Trump spending time in jail/prison in April, suggesting high confidence he will avoid incarceration during this period. This reflects either skepticism about imminent arrest or belief in legal delays.
Trump avoids jail in April due to procedural delays, successful legal appeals, or prosecutorial discretion, with his legal team leveraging technicalities or appeals to postpone any potential sentence. Public statements or settlements may also reduce immediate risk.
An unexpected arrest occurs, leading to a swift trial or sentencing that results in incarceration before April, driven by a breakthrough in investigations or a court ruling that accelerates proceedings beyond Trump's legal maneuvering.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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