Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Partisan polarization reducing legislative efficiency
Calibrated 100% · raw 1900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:04:51 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
44%
Signal Score
+19.0
Opportunity
13.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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AI safety bill will positively impact global economic growth, hence US Fed may cut rates in Q3 2026
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AI safety bill will not impact international football matches, such as Algeria vs Austria or Uruguay vs Spain
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1900.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 43.5% probability that the U.S. will enact a federal AI safety bill with at least one of the specified provisions before 2027. The likelihood reflects significant uncertainty due to political and legislative hurdles.
A bipartisan consensus on AI safety could emerge, leading to swift legislative action. High-profile AI incidents or public pressure might accelerate negotiations, increasing the odds of passage before the 2026 deadline.
Partisan gridlock or industry lobbying could stall or dilute the bill, resulting in no meaningful AI safety legislation by 2027. Competing priorities, such as economic or geopolitical crises, may further delay progress.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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