This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Partisan polarization delaying compromise on AI provisions
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:50:04 PM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
45%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests a 45% probability that the U.S. will enact a federal AI safety bill with at least one of the specified provisions before 2027. This reflects moderate skepticism given historical legislative delays and partisan divisions on AI regulation.
Congressional urgency on AI risks could accelerate bipartisan compromise, with high-profile incidents (e.g., deepfake scandals) pressuring lawmakers to pass a bill. A Republican-led Congress might prioritize light-touch regulation, including human-in-the-loop requirements, to mitigate liability concerns while avoiding restrictive provisions.
Deep partisan gridlock and industry lobbying may stall or water down AI legislation, with competing priorities (e.g., budget, elections) delaying action. Past tech regulations (e.g., EU AI Act) may set precedents that reduce U.S. urgency, or a divided government could block consensus on restrictive provisions like training limits.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 45% while ORYN AI estimates 45%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
