Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected regulatory actions affecting NVIDIA's business operations
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:36:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
NVIDIA's market performance is negatively correlated with the likelihood of WeWork's bankruptcy, as a bankruptcy would likely lead to a decline in the tech sector and NVIDIA's stock price. This is reflected in the relationship between 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?' and 'Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2023?'.
correlates · strength 60%
NVIDIA's market performance is positively correlated with the US Fed's interest rate cuts, as a rate cut can boost the tech sector and NVIDIA's stock price. This is reflected in the relationship between 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?' and 'Will US Fed cut rates in Q3 2026?'.
correlates · strength 60%
NVIDIA's market performance is positively correlated with the likelihood of the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill, as the bill's passage would likely boost the tech sector and NVIDIA's stock price. This is reflected in the relationship between 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?' and 'Will the U.S. enact AI safety bill before 2027?'.
correlates · strength 60%
NVIDIA's market performance is not correlated with the outcome of the NY-25 and GA-12 House seats, as these are political events that do not directly impact the tech sector or NVIDIA's stock price. This is reflected in the lack of relationship between 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?' and 'Will the Republican Party win the NY-25 House seat?' and 'Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?'.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
53 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 1.40% probability that NVIDIA (NVDA) will hit a $160 intraday low during regular trading hours in June 2026. This reflects strong market confidence in NVIDIA's price stability or upward momentum over the period.
NVIDIA's strong AI chip demand, robust earnings growth, and sustained institutional investment could drive its stock price higher, reducing the likelihood of a $160 intraday low. Market sentiment and technical indicators may favor continued upward trends.
A market downturn, regulatory challenges, or weaker-than-expected earnings could pressure NVIDIA's stock price, increasing the chance of a $160 intraday low. External factors like macroeconomic instability or supply chain disruptions may also play a role.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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