Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low Democratic investment in GA-12 due to unfavorable odds
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:36:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
17%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
74d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
76 points
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The GA-12 House seat market currently prices a 16.5% probability for the Democratic Party to win in the 2026 midterms, indicating a strong Republican-leaning district. Historical voting patterns and recent electoral trends in Georgia's 12th district favor the GOP.
Democrats could capitalize on shifting demographics in GA-12, particularly in urban areas like Macon, or if national trends favor the party in 2026. A strong Democratic candidate with local appeal or a Republican incumbent scandal could flip the seat.
GA-12 has trended Republican in recent cycles, with Trump winning by 15+ points in 2020 and 2024. Absent a major shift, structural advantages (rural dominance, incumbency) likely favor the GOP. Midterm electorates also typically disfavor the president's party.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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