Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected surge in inflation requiring prolonged high rates
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:33:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
53 points
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 4.65% probability that the Fed’s lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate will reach 0.5% or lower before 2027. This reflects a market consensus that further rate cuts to such levels are unlikely given current economic conditions and Fed policy trajectory.
A severe economic downturn or financial crisis could force the Fed to aggressively cut rates to near-zero levels, similar to the 2020 COVID-19 response. Persistent inflation below target or a sharp decline in economic activity may also justify such cuts before 2027.
The Fed may maintain higher rates to combat inflation, especially if price pressures remain elevated. Strong economic growth or geopolitical risks could reduce the urgency for rate cuts, keeping the lower bound above 0.5%. Political pressure to avoid near-zero rates may also play a role.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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