Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential inaccuracies in ISW map shading or resolution delays
Calibrated 100% · raw 1700% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:46:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
+17.0
Opportunity
14.4
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1700.0¢
Entry: 26-31
—
Resolution
40d
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Borova (49.37457173620971, 37.62233412539868) by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Borova is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a 45.5% probability that Russia will capture territory in Borova by September 30, 2026, based on ISW map shading criteria. The outcome hinges on sustained Russian military advances or control over the specified coordinates, with no resolution for temporary or negotiated settlements without de facto control.
Russian forces could achieve a breakthrough in the Kharkiv region, leveraging momentum from recent gains to advance toward Borova. Sustained artillery and drone strikes may degrade Ukrainian defenses, enabling incremental territorial control. A prolonged Ukrainian manpower shortage could further weaken resistance, increasing the likelihood of Russian capture.
Ukrainian defenses in the area may stabilize due to reinforced troop deployments or Western military aid, preventing Russian advances. Russian logistical bottlenecks or counteroffensives elsewhere could divert resources away from Borova. International pressure or a negotiated settlement without de facto control would not meet resolution criteria.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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