Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Buttigieg's declining political capital post-2020
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:50:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027 is related to Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027 is related to Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024?
correlates · strength 60%
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027 is related to Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?, Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?, Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
69 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 14.50% probability that Pete Buttigieg will announce a 2028 U.S. Presidential run before 2027. This reflects low current sentiment but acknowledges potential for strategic timing closer to the election cycle.
Buttigieg may leverage his 2020 campaign experience, moderate Democratic appeal, and potential VP role in 2024 to position himself as a frontrunner. A rising national profile or perceived Democratic Party need for a younger, pragmatic candidate could prompt an early announcement.
Buttigieg's 2020 campaign underperformance and current low polling suggest limited urgency to re-enter the race. Party dynamics favoring Biden or Harris for 2028 may discourage a premature bid. His role as Transportation Secretary could constrain public campaigning.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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