Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Tournament cancellation or postponement (resolves to Other)
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:18:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.4
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Related to E-Sports and Gaming Markets
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Geopolitical Events
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Tech Startup Performance
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Energy Market Trends
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 40.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve to the region of the team that wins the Grand Final of the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) Dota 2 tournament, held July 7–19, 2026 in Paris, France. For the purposes of this market, a team's region is determined by the regional classification listed for that team on its Liquipedia team page (https://liquipedia.net/dota2). Regions are grouped based on the Liquipedia classification at (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Portal:Teams) If the winning team's Liquipedia regional classification does not fall into any of the six groups above, this market will resolve to the group containing the geographically nearest region, as determined by the team's classification on Liquipedia. The market resolves to the region of the single team that wins the EWC Dota 2 Grand Final (i.e., is awarded 1st place / the championship). If the tournament is cancelled, or is postponed such that no champion is determined by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If there is a tie, this market will resolve to the region that comes first alphabetically. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Esports_World_Cup/2026), used both for the official champion and for each team's regional classification. The official EWC website (https://esportsworldcup.com) is the secondary source for the champion. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on a North American team winning the Dota 2 EWC 2026. With a 1.10% probability, the market reflects NA's historical underperformance and lack of elite teams relative to Europe, China, and Southeast Asia. While upsets are possible, the odds remain extremely low.
NA has occasionally produced top teams (e.g., EG at TI5) and could field a strong roster by 2026. The tournament's single-elimination format favors unpredictability, and a favorable patch or meta shift might amplify NA's strengths. Fresh talent or a new superteam could emerge before the event.
NA Dota has consistently lagged behind other regions, with few teams ranked in the top 10 globally. Top NA players often move to Europe, eroding local talent. The region lacks the depth and Tier-2 infrastructure needed to compete against stacked EU/CIS/CN rosters with regular high-level practice.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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