Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low name recognition outside elite financial/media circles
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:35:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Pigasse's French presidential bid may influence US Presidential Election 2024 outcome
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
239d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Matthieu Pigasse has a low but non-trivial chance (12.5%) of being on the 2027 French presidential ballot. His political trajectory remains uncertain, with no formal party affiliation or clear path to securing the required 500 endorsements.
Pigasse leverages his high-profile media and banking background to gain traction in left-wing or centrist circles, securing endorsements from regional officials or minor parties to meet the 500-signature threshold. A late surge in polling or coalition-building could propel him onto the ballot.
Pigasse fails to align with a major party or movement, leaving him without the necessary 500 endorsements. His past controversies or lack of grassroots support hinder his viability, resulting in exclusion from the official candidate list.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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