Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low name recognition outside urban areas
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:35:58 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
-1.4
Opportunity
1.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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r3:2028 Republican presidential nomination
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r4:NBA Finals 2022-2023
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r1:US Presidential Election 2024
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -140.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
74d
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
36 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has a low but non-trivial chance of winning the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, with a current market probability of 15.45%. His viability depends on overcoming significant structural and political challenges in a state historically dominated by Republicans.
Kreiss-Tomkins could gain traction by leveraging his progressive policy platform, strong grassroots support, and Alaska’s unique political environment, where independent and Democratic candidates occasionally win statewide races. A split in the Republican vote or a surge in turnout among younger and urban voters could propel him to victory.
Alaska’s electoral history favors Republicans, with only one Democratic governor (Tony Knowles) in the past 50 years. Kreiss-Tomkins faces an uphill battle due to Alaska’s conservative lean, potential opposition from well-funded Republican candidates, and the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which may dilute his support.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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