Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Legal challenges or scandals involving AfD candidates
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:03:36 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
43%
ORYN Consensus
43%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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r5: Candidate's Chances of Success
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Election Outcomes
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 40-45
—
Resolution
16d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
89 points
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 42.5% chance that AfD will secure an absolute majority in Sachsen-Anhalt's 2026 Landtag election. This reflects a competitive but not dominant position for AfD in a historically volatile regional electorate.
AfD could achieve an absolute majority if voter turnout surges among their core base, coalition fatigue among traditional parties deepens, and external crises (e.g., economic downturns) amplify anti-establishment sentiment. Polling trends showing consistent AfD leads would further support this outcome.
AfD may fall short of an absolute majority due to strategic voting by opposition parties, AfD's internal divisions, or a last-minute shift in voter priorities away from extremist platforms. Historical patterns in eastern German states also show AfD struggling to cross the 50% threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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