Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from NOAA post-resolution date
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:00:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
entertainment
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tel Aviv reaching 32°C on June 27, 2026, is currently priced at 4.60%, indicating low probability. Historical data suggests this temperature is uncommon but plausible for late June.
Climate trends indicate rising temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean, with June 27 historically seeing peaks near 30-33°C. A heatwave event or regional warming could push temperatures to 32°C, aligning with NOAA's seasonal forecasts.
Late June in Tel Aviv typically averages 28-30°C, with 32°C occurring in only ~15-20% of years. Persistent cloud cover, coastal breezes, or unseasonal weather patterns could suppress temperatures below 32°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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