This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from NOAA post-resolution date
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:00:49 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Tel Aviv reaching 32°C on June 27, 2026, is currently priced at 4.60%, indicating low probability. Historical data suggests this temperature is uncommon but plausible for late June.
Climate trends indicate rising temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean, with June 27 historically seeing peaks near 30-33°C. A heatwave event or regional warming could push temperatures to 32°C, aligning with NOAA's seasonal forecasts.
Late June in Tel Aviv typically averages 28-30°C, with 32°C occurring in only ~15-20% of years. Persistent cloud cover, coastal breezes, or unseasonal weather patterns could suppress temperatures below 32°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.5% while ORYN AI estimates 4.6%.
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