Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: temperature_measurement_precision
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:36:05 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
32%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 29-34
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 31.5% probability that Shanghai's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach exactly 26°C, based on historical climate patterns and current trends. This is a low-probability outcome, suggesting skepticism about such precise temperature alignment.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a heatwave or unusual weather pattern elevates temperatures in Shanghai to 26°C. Factors like strong high-pressure systems, reduced cloud cover, or regional warming trends could push the mercury to this level, aligning with peak summer climatology.
The bear case argues that 26°C is an outlier for late June in Shanghai, where historical averages typically hover between 24-25°C. Cooler-than-average conditions, persistent cloud cover, or monsoon influences could suppress temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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