This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature shifts
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:00:29 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low 5.95% probability that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, but not impossible.
Unseasonably strong subtropical high pressure systems or heatwaves could push temperatures to 32°C. Climate change trends may increase the likelihood of extreme heat events in Hong Kong, though this is statistically rare for late June.
Historical data shows late June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28-31°C, with 32°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or cooler-than-average ocean currents could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 6% while ORYN AI estimates 6%.
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