Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature shifts
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:00:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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r1: Political Uncertainty and Unpredictability, r2: Pop Culture and Entertainment, r3: Market Sentiment and Hype, r4: Technological Innovation and Adoption, r5: Global Economic Trends
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 3-9
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 5.95% probability that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, but not impossible.
Unseasonably strong subtropical high pressure systems or heatwaves could push temperatures to 32°C. Climate change trends may increase the likelihood of extreme heat events in Hong Kong, though this is statistically rare for late June.
Historical data shows late June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28-31°C, with 32°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or cooler-than-average ocean currents could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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