Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_heatwave_events
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:01:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Helsinki reaching 22°C on June 30, 2026, is extremely low at 1.10%, reflecting historically uncommon high temperatures for the date. Historical climate data suggests June 30 in Helsinki typically peaks below 20°C, with 22°C being a rare outlier.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an exceptional heatwave or atmospheric blocking pattern (e.g., a strong Scandinavian high) pushes temperatures well above the seasonal norm. Such events, while infrequent, have occurred in past summers (e.g., 2018, 2021), where Helsinki recorded temperatures near or above 30°C. Early June heatwaves in 2024 suggest increasing volatility in regional temperature patterns.
The bearish case is supported by Helsinki's historical climate data, where the highest recorded temperature on June 30 is 21.5°C (2018), with most years peaking below 20°C. Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence, or a cooler-than-average June could suppress temperatures further. The market's low probability aligns with these climatological norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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