This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: low probability of extreme heat events in Beijing during late June
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:30:37 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
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Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 0.75% probability to Beijing reaching a high of 39°C on June 27, 2026, indicating extremely low confidence in this outcome based on historical temperature trends and seasonal norms.
A rare but plausible heatwave could push Beijing's temperature to 39°C, driven by strong high-pressure systems, urban heat island effects, or climate anomalies like El Niño. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or record-breaking solar radiation could also contribute.
Historical data suggests Beijing's average high in late June is around 31-33°C, with 39°C being an extreme outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon-related rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses would likely suppress temperatures below this threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.8%.
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