This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 30 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Key risk: Tracker failure or miscounting
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:15:27 AM
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 30 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assigns a 0.25% probability to Elon Musk posting between 400-419 tweets in the specified week-long window, indicating extremely low confidence in this outcome. Historical data suggests such a volume is highly atypical for Musk's posting frequency.
Musk could increase tweet volume due to high-profile events, product launches, or geopolitical developments requiring frequent communication. His recent trend of reposting content (e.g., memes, news) may also inflate counts if the tracker includes these. A viral campaign or AI-driven content generation could temporarily boost output.
Musk’s historical average is ~10-15 tweets/day, making 400-419 tweets (~57-60/day) implausible without a major disruption. His recent focus on X’s algorithmic changes or legal issues may reduce posting frequency. Technical issues (e.g., tracker malfunction) could artificially lower counts.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
