Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Prolonged government deadlock delaying any appointment
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:32:06 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Zoran Tegeltija's political party has no notable relations with the Nobel Peace Prize
correlates · strength 60%
Zoran Tegeltija's political career is not focused on American politics
correlates · strength 60%
Zoran Tegeltija's political party has no significant connections to the US
correlates · strength 60%
Zoran Tegeltija's political party is not known for its cinematic influences
correlates · strength 60%
Zoran Tegeltija's political party is not a major player in global politics
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
545d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chairman of the Council of Ministers takes office by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Zoran Tegeltija, a Serb politician from the SNSD party and former Chairman of the Council of Ministers, is a possible contender for the next Chairman, with the market currently at 50%. The outcome hinges on post-2026 election coalition dynamics, international sanctions, and ethnic power-sharing negotiations in Bosnia's complex political landscape.
Tegeltija is an experienced former Chairman with strong backing from the dominant Serb party SNSD, which could leverage its electoral performance to secure the position. The rotational nature of ethnic representation may favor a Serb candidate when the chairmanship cycles to the Serb member.
Tegeltija faces US and UK sanctions for undermining the Dayton Accords, making his appointment politically costly and diplomatically risky. Intra-Bosniak and international opposition, combined with SNSD's isolation, could block his candidacy in favor of a more moderate Serb figure.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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