Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected third-party candidate impact
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:31:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
3.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
US Fed rate cut Q3 2026 -> US economic uncertainty -> Political party performance in House elections -> NC-01 and related House seats
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 500.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
75d
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market currently favors a Democratic victory in the NC-01 House seat in 2026 with a 51.50% probability. Historically, NC-01 has been a competitive district with shifting political dynamics, making this a tight race.
Democrats may capitalize on voter turnout trends favoring their base in midterm elections, particularly if national issues align with their messaging. The incumbent's approval ratings or local economic conditions could also play to Democratic strengths.
Republicans could leverage incumbency advantages, redistricting effects, or strong local opposition to Democratic candidates. Historical performance in NC-01 suggests Republicans have a slight edge in recent cycles.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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