Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or abbreviation (resolves to 'No')
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:00:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,658,314
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 26-31
—
Resolution
18h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 3 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, including any extra time or penalty shootout, if applicable. Pre-match and post-match commentary will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, the "FOX broadcasting team" refers to the officially assigned play-by-play announcer, match analyst, sideline reporter, and rules analyst assigned to this match by FOX Sports. Remarks made by other analysts, guest commentators, players, coaches, or any other individuals not part of the officially assigned broadcast team will not count toward resolution. If the Spain vs Austria match is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this match is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English broadcast of the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 28.5% probability that FOX's broadcasting team will use the term 'Foul' 10+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup 2026 match. This is a low-probability event given typical match dynamics and referee intervention frequency.
A high-tempo, aggressive match with frequent fouls from both teams could push the count above 10. Spain's possession-based style may lead to tactical fouls, while Austria's physical approach could increase referee interventions. A referee known for strict officiating could also elevate the tally.
A clean, fast-paced match with minimal stoppages would likely keep fouls below 10. Both teams may prioritize technical play to avoid fouls, and a lenient referee could reduce the frequency of calls. Pre-match or post-match commentary is excluded, limiting opportunities.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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