Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected candidate entry
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:35:54 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
97%
ORYN Consensus
96%
Signal Score
-0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Graph Relationships
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correlated market
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Ryan Fazio's 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election win is correlated with the 2024 US Presidential Election outcome
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -75.0¢
Entry: 94-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market overwhelmingly favors Ryan Fazio winning the 2026 Connecticut Republican gubernatorial primary with a 96.20% probability. This reflects a near-consensus expectation of his victory based on current political dynamics in Connecticut.
Fazio benefits from strong grassroots support within Connecticut's Republican base, particularly in conservative-leaning districts. His alignment with national GOP priorities and potential fundraising advantages could solidify his frontrunner status. A divided Democratic field in the general election may also indirectly boost his primary prospects.
Fazio faces potential backlash from moderate Republicans or independents if his positions become too extreme for Connecticut's electorate. A late-entry candidate with broader appeal could emerge to challenge his dominance. Scandals or controversies prior to the primary could also derail his campaign.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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