Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Government deadlock or lengthy post-election negotiations
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:33:07 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Box Office Performance
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
545d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chairman of the Council of Ministers takes office by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Nermin Nikšić, the incumbent Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, faces a 50% chance of being reappointed after the 2026 general election. His fate hinges on coalition negotiations and the performance of his Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the upcoming vote.
Nikšić’s experience and the current government’s relative stability boost his reappointment prospects. Continued EU integration progress and support from key coalition partners could extend his mandate.
Deep ethnic divisions, particularly opposition from Republika Srpska entities, may block government formation. A poor SDP showing in the 2026 election could shift power to a rival coalition and a different candidate.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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