Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a higher-performing alternative (e.g., another young talent or veteran striker)
Calibrated 100% · raw 800% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:31:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
31%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
-8.0
Opportunity
5.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
The outcome of Lamine Yamal's 2026 FIFA World Cup performance may be correlated with the 2028 US Presidential Election, as both events may be influenced by the same global macroeconomic factors.
correlates · strength 60%
Lamine Yamal's 2026 FIFA World Cup performance may be impacted by the success of the Golden State Warriors in the 2022-2023 NBA season, as both events may be influenced by the same cultural and entertainment trends.
correlates · strength 60%
The prediction of Lamine Yamal's 2026 FIFA World Cup performance may be related to the outcome of the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as both events may be influenced by the same global political trends.
correlates · strength 60%
The prediction of Lamine Yamal's 2026 FIFA World Cup performance may be related to the success of Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch, as both events may be influenced by the same technological and entrepreneurial trends.
correlates · strength 60%
Lamine Yamal's 2026 FIFA World Cup performance is likely influenced by the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as both events may be impacted by global economic trends and shifts in international relations.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -800.0¢
Entry: 28-34
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to the player who is awarded the Bronze Boot award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Lamine Yamal has a 23% probability of winning the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting moderate but not dominant market confidence. His chances are influenced by Spain's strong squad depth, tournament unpredictability, and competition from other top young talents.
Yamal's exceptional dribbling, creativity, and goal-scoring record for Barcelona and Spain (under 20) position him as a prime candidate for the Bronze Boot. If Spain advances deep into the tournament and Yamal features prominently in attack, his goal contributions could secure the award.
High competition from established forwards and young talents (e.g., Pedri, Gavi, or rising stars from other nations) may limit Yamal's goal tally. Injuries, tactical decisions, or Spain's early exit could derail his chances entirely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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