Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Franchise fatigue reducing audience interest
Calibrated 100% · raw 255% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Jumanji 3's success may depend on the popularity of the 2028 US Presidential Election candidates
correlates · strength 60%
Jumanji 3's success may be influenced by the 2028 US Presidential Election winner's platform on entertainment
correlates · strength 60%
Jumanji 3's success may be influenced by the popularity of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
correlates · strength 60%
Jumanji 3's success may be affected by the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election
correlates · strength 60%
Jumanji 3's success may depend on strong competition in the 2026 movie market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 255.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
20 points
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of 'Jumanji 3' being the top-grossing film of 2026 is extremely low at 0.45%, reflecting minimal market confidence in its commercial dominance. Historical franchise performance and competition from major 2026 releases make this outcome unlikely.
Jumanji 3 could surpass expectations by leveraging nostalgia, strong casting, and a holiday release window to dominate box office charts. If marketing campaigns are highly effective and competition is weak, it may secure the top spot despite low initial odds.
Jumanji 3 faces fierce competition from blockbusters like Marvel, DC, or major franchises (e.g., Star Wars, Avatar) slated for 2026. Franchise fatigue or poor reception could further dampen its performance, making top-grossing status implausible.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
