Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected player departures due to personal or health issues
AI updated 6/30/2026, 1:15:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
9%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Indirectly related to team performance: LCK championship odds, 2024 LoL World Championship odds
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to entertainment: The Hunger Games movie gross, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Nobel Peace Prize
correlates · strength 60%
Directly related to esports: LCK Summer Split winner, Gen.G regular season performance
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to US politics: 2024 US Presidential Election, 2028 US Presidential Election, Nikki Haley nomination
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,746,908
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Gen.G's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Gen.G Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Gen.G) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: Kiin, Canyon, Chovy, Ruler, and Duro. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently prices in a low 8.5% probability of Gen.G making a roster change before September 2026, indicating strong confidence in roster stability. The active roster of Kiin, Canyon, Chovy, Ruler, and Duro has shown no recent disruptions, and organizational trends favor continuity.
Gen.G may pursue a roster change due to underperformance or strategic adjustments, particularly if a star player like Chovy or Ruler faces contract negotiations or performance issues. External factors such as team restructuring or coaching decisions could also trigger a move. Historical trends show some mid-season adjustments, though these are rare for top-tier teams.
Gen.G’s roster is likely stable given their recent success and strong player retention policies. The team has avoided mid-season changes in recent years, and all five listed players are core to their lineup. Organizational stability and financial incentives to retain talent further reduce the likelihood of a change.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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