Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lack of proven Grand Tour results
Calibrated 100% · raw 4500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:52:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-45.0
Opportunity
13.5
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,108,816
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
37d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Edward Plackaert is not a recognized Grand Tour contender, making a top-3 finish in the 2026 Tour de France highly unlikely despite the current 50% market probability. The market appears mispriced or driven by speculative noise, as his profile and past results do not support such an outcome.
If Plackaert has dramatically improved his climbing and time-trialing abilities, or if the top contenders face injuries or disqualifications, he could potentially slip into the top 3. The market's 50% probability suggests some participants see a plausible path, possibly through breakaway or unexpected circumstances.
Plackaert has never finished near the top of a Grand Tour and is not a designated GC leader for any team. The Tour de France features dominant riders like Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Roglic, making a top-3 finish nearly impossible without a miraculous transformation.
Trade links and live readiness
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