Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Chronic political deadlock stalling government formation past July 2028
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:32:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chairman of the Council of Ministers takes office by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Dragan Čović, the veteran Bosnian Croat leader, is a leading contender to become Chairman of the Council of Ministers by July 2028, but the market's 50% price reflects deep uncertainty. His path depends on post-election coalition dynamics, High Representative involvement, and the ability to overcome entrenched political deadlock in Bosnia's complex power-sharing system.
Čović is the dominant figure in the largest Croat party (HDZ BiH) and has extensive experience as a former chairman. He could emerge as a consensus pick if EU integration pressures force parties to form a functional government, especially with the High Representative's potential backing.
Čović remains a polarizing figure with corruption allegations and nationalist positions that alienate Bosniaks and Serbs. Government formation in Bosnia often takes years or fails entirely, and the 'Other' resolution becomes more likely if no chairman is appointed by the deadline.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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