This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify. Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market. To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution. If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Uncertainty around Burnham's PM appointment timeline
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:43:35 PM
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify. Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market. To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution. If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
54%
Signal Score
+4.0
Opportunity
2.6
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market implies a slight favorability (54%) for Dan Jarvis to be included in Andy Burnham's cabinet, contingent on Burnham's appointment as UK Prime Minister by December 31, 2026. The resolution hinges on formal cabinet appointments within a 7-day window post-appointment.
Dan Jarvis, a Labour MP with a strong regional base in Sheffield and experience in defence and devolution roles, may be a strategic pick for Burnham's cabinet to balance northern representation and policy expertise. His prior ministerial roles (e.g., Shadow Defence Secretary) suggest he could be reappointed to a senior portfolio.
Burnham may prioritize a leaner cabinet or exclude Jarvis due to factional politics, ideological differences, or a preference for non-Sheffield-based MPs. Jarvis's limited high-profile cabinet experience outside defence could reduce his likelihood of inclusion.
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Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 54%.
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