Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Prolonged political deadlock preventing formal appointment
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:31:43 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chairman of the Council of Ministers takes office by July 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market assesses whether Borjana Krišto will remain or be reappointed as Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina by July 31, 2028. At 50%, the market reflects deep uncertainty over Bosnia's fragmented political landscape and the outcome of upcoming general elections.
Krišto has navigated Bosnia's complex coalition politics since January 2023 and leads the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ BiH), a key establishment party. If the current governing coalition survives the next elections, she is well-positioned for reappointment.
Bosnia's political system is notoriously unstable, with frequent deadlocks and international interventions. The next general elections could shift the balance of power, and the High Representative may impose changes that sideline her candidacy.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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