This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Legal or ethical controversies impacting Sémper's candidacy
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:00:28 AM
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assigns a low 5% probability to Borja Sémper becoming Spain's next Prime Minister by March 31, 2028. This reflects his current political standing and the competitive landscape for the premiership.
Borja Sémper could become Prime Minister if his party gains significant electoral support in upcoming general elections, capitalizing on regional discontent or shifting national priorities. A strong coalition or parliamentary arithmetic favoring his leadership could also materialize, despite current low odds.
Sémper faces steep odds due to his party's minority status, lack of broad national appeal, and strong competition from established parties like the PSOE and PP. Persistent internal party divisions or legal controversies could further diminish his prospects.
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Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
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