Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Legal or ethical controversies impacting Sémper's candidacy
Calibrated 100% · raw 105% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:00:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+1.1
Opportunity
0.9
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to movie box office performance
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Predict.fun FDV market performance
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to US Presidential Elections as Borja Sémper is a Spanish politician
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 105.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
589d
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a low 5% probability to Borja Sémper becoming Spain's next Prime Minister by March 31, 2028. This reflects his current political standing and the competitive landscape for the premiership.
Borja Sémper could become Prime Minister if his party gains significant electoral support in upcoming general elections, capitalizing on regional discontent or shifting national priorities. A strong coalition or parliamentary arithmetic favoring his leadership could also materialize, despite current low odds.
Sémper faces steep odds due to his party's minority status, lack of broad national appeal, and strong competition from established parties like the PSOE and PP. Persistent internal party divisions or legal controversies could further diminish his prospects.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
