Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Political instability or early elections
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:00:31 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
No Correlation: The Serbian Prime Minister election is unrelated to the box office performance of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping or Recep Tayyip Erdoğan winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Low Correlation: The outcome of the Serbian Prime Minister election has minimal direct impact on the 2024 US Presidential Election or subsequent elections, such as Ro Khanna's or Nikki Haley's potential nominations.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
680d
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests Aleksandar Vučić has an even chance (50%) of becoming Serbia's next Prime Minister by June 30, 2028. Resolution requires formal election and swearing-in by the National Assembly, not interim appointments.
Vučić remains dominant in Serbian politics, leveraging his party's parliamentary majority to secure reappointment as Prime Minister. Economic stability and nationalist policies sustain his popularity, ensuring continued control of the government.
Vučić faces declining public support due to economic hardship, corruption scandals, or opposition gains in elections. A coalition shift or parliamentary rejection of his candidacy could prevent his return as Prime Minister.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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