This market will resolve to the player who wins the Young Player Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Injury or suspension prior to or during the tournament
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:27 PM
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Young Player Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Aleksandar Pavlović winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup Young Player Award is extremely low at 0.20%, indicating minimal market confidence in his candidacy. The award is typically given to emerging talents, but Pavlović's current profile and competition from other young stars reduce his odds.
Pavlović could win if he delivers a standout performance at the 2026 World Cup, leading his team deep into the tournament and scoring key goals or providing assists. If he is named among the tournament's top players by media and analysts, his market probability could rise significantly.
Pavlović's chances are diminished by the presence of other highly touted young players like Pedri, Jamal Musiala, or emerging talents from strong footballing nations. Injuries, tactical decisions, or underperformance could further reduce his likelihood of winning the award.
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Will Aleksandar Pavlović win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.2% while ORYN AI estimates 0.2%.
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