Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or suspension prior to or during the tournament
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Pavlović's performance is independent of US sports
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Will Freddie Mac's market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? is a macroeconomic indicator, Will Antonee Robinson record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is a sports event, Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West? is a sports event, Will Lamine Yamal win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is a sports event, Will Corey Conners win the 2026 Travelers Championship? is a sports event, All are related to 2026, All are related to Sports or Economy, All are related to a specific event or milestone, All are related to a specific award or recognition, All are related to a specific company or organization
correlates · strength 60%
Pavlović's performance is independent of another country's basketball league
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correlated market
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Pavlović's performance is independent of tech company's market value
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Pavlović's performance is independent of US presidential elections
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
69 points
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Young Player Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Aleksandar Pavlović winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup Young Player Award is extremely low at 0.20%, indicating minimal market confidence in his candidacy. The award is typically given to emerging talents, but Pavlović's current profile and competition from other young stars reduce his odds.
Pavlović could win if he delivers a standout performance at the 2026 World Cup, leading his team deep into the tournament and scoring key goals or providing assists. If he is named among the tournament's top players by media and analysts, his market probability could rise significantly.
Pavlović's chances are diminished by the presence of other highly touted young players like Pedri, Jamal Musiala, or emerging talents from strong footballing nations. Injuries, tactical decisions, or underperformance could further reduce his likelihood of winning the award.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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