Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential delays or cancellations of *Avengers: Doomsday*
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:00:47 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Inversely related to market trends of non-Marvel superhero films
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Unrelated to US presidential elections
correlates · strength 60%
Correlated with box office performance of Marvel movies
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
119d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assessing Simu Liu's casting as Shang-Chi in *Avengers: Doomsday* (2026) currently reflects a 50% probability, indicating balanced uncertainty. The outcome hinges on Marvel Studios' casting decisions and official announcements.
Simu Liu could be cast as Shang-Chi due to Marvel's preference for established actors with cultural relevance, leveraging his popularity from *Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings*. His inclusion would align with Marvel's strategy to integrate multiverse narratives and appeal to Asian audiences.
Marvel may opt for a lesser-known or new actor to refresh the franchise, avoiding typecasting risks. Alternatively, casting delays or reboots could push Shang-Chi's role to a spin-off, reducing his likelihood in *Doomsday*.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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