Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unpredictable_weather_events
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:30:43 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
23%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
temperature uncertainty in Hong Kong is related to global climate change, which is also a factor in global politics and events, such as the 2024 US Presidential Election; the outcome of which can influence economic indicators, like the market value of Predict.fun FDV; the performance of sports teams, like the Golden State Warriors, can be affected by the overall economic climate; Ro Khanna and Nikki Haley's political careers are influenced by global events and market trends; therefore, there are indirect relationships between the mentioned markets
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (25%) that Hong Kong's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026 will reach 26°C. Historical June lows in Hong Kong rarely exceed 25°C, suggesting a bearish outlook for this specific temperature threshold.
If a rare heatwave or urban heat island effect pushes temperatures higher than historical norms, the lowest temperature could reach 26°C. Unusual weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or prolonged southerly winds, could contribute to this outcome.
Historical data shows June lows in Hong Kong typically range between 23-25°C, with 26°C being an outlier. Without extreme weather anomalies, the probability of hitting 26°C remains low. Climate trends also suggest gradual warming, but not sufficient to breach this threshold by 2026.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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