This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: unpredictable_weather_events
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:30:43 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
-3.0
Opportunity
2.5
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (25%) that Hong Kong's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026 will reach 26°C. Historical June lows in Hong Kong rarely exceed 25°C, suggesting a bearish outlook for this specific temperature threshold.
If a rare heatwave or urban heat island effect pushes temperatures higher than historical norms, the lowest temperature could reach 26°C. Unusual weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or prolonged southerly winds, could contribute to this outcome.
Historical data shows June lows in Hong Kong typically range between 23-25°C, with 26°C being an outlier. Without extreme weather anomalies, the probability of hitting 26°C remains low. Climate trends also suggest gradual warming, but not sufficient to breach this threshold by 2026.
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Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 25% while ORYN AI estimates 22%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
