This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:15:11 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
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Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 1.20% probability to Warsaw reaching 38°C on June 27, 2026, based on historical temperature data and seasonal trends. Such extreme heat is uncommon for Warsaw, with June daily highs rarely exceeding 35°C in recorded history.
A sustained heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air mass could push temperatures to 38°C. Climate change trends and urban heat island effects may also contribute to record-breaking heat, though this would be an outlier event.
Warsaw's historical climate data shows June daily highs typically range between 20-28°C, with 38°C being unprecedented. Seasonal norms, cloud cover, or advection of cooler maritime air would make this outcome highly unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.2% while ORYN AI estimates 1.2%.
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