This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:15:20 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a 0.05% probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 22°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for late June in the Kanto region. The extreme unlikelihood reflects Tokyo's typical late-June temperatures, which rarely reach such a low threshold.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unusual cold snap or persistent cloud cover suppresses daytime warming, combined with high humidity reducing heat retention. Alternatively, a late-season frontal system could delay seasonal warming, though historically improbable for this date.
The bear case dominates: Tokyo's late June climatology shows average highs of 26-28°C, with 22°C being atypically cool. Persistent heatwaves, urban heat island effects, or early monsoon withdrawal could push temperatures well above 22°C, making this outcome highly unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 0.1%.
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